Notable Additions: Adrian Houser, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader
Notable Losses: Carlos Carrasco, Daniel Vogelbach, Luis Guillorme
The Mets followed their impressive 101-win season with an embarrassing 75-win season in 2023. DeGrom departed, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at the deadline, and their hitting severely underperformed. The Mets did not make any moves this offseason, which made me think that they have significantly improved. Nevertheless, where do they rank this year?
Projected Starters
C: Francisco Alvarez
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Jeff McNeil
3B: Bretty Baty
SS: Francisco Lindor
LF: Brandon Nimmo
CF: Harrison Bader
RF: Starling Marte
DH: Ji-Man Choi
The Mets were ranked 18th in OPS and 25th in batting average as a team. Three players had an OPS above .800, and five had an OPS above .700. Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil were the five. The good news is that they are all returning this year. My issue is that those five players are good, but they couldn’t help push New York over the .500 mark because no one else could help. Starling Marte was not good, and Bret Baty was bad. Their solution was to sign Ji-Man Choi and Harrison Bader. Those two don’t excite me, but because the Mets have a solid core of five hitters, I give them a 5/10.
Projected Starting Rotation
Jose Quintana
Luis Severino
Sean Manaea
Adrian Houser
Tylor Megill
Kodai Senga??
I’d like to state that if Kodai Senga was healthy, he’d be in my X-Factor category. However, I can’t factor him into this starting rotation ranking because he had the same injury as Johan Santana around the same age. It is a shame because he had a great rookie year. He put up a 2.98 ERA with 202 strikeouts and 10.9 K/9. Hoping for a speedy recovery. As for the rest of the rotation, it is okay. Yes, I know, the Mets have the best spring training ERA. But last year’s 3 NL Cy Young finalists had horrible spring training ERAs. Do with this information what you will. Quintana is solid, Severino and Houser are looking for bounce-back years, and Manaea is okay. Overall, it is a serviceable rotation and I give them a 4/10. 5/10 if Senga comes back to full strength.
The bullpen is happy to have Edwin Diaz back after they ranked 25th in saves in 2023. Granted, they only had a few opportunities. Brooks Raley is an intriguing setup option coming off a good year. Adam Ottavino returns as well to provide another solid option. This bullpen is serviceable and has some good pieces, so I give them a 5/10. Welcome back, Edwin.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Francisco Lindor: Lindor had a great 2023 campaign. He hit .254/.336/470, had a 30/30 season and a 121 WRC+. His last two seasons have been much better than his 2021 campaign. His baseball savant page has him in the 50th percentile or better in every batting category. If the Mets have any shot at the playoffs, he’ll have to show up again.
Edwin Diaz: Diaz was unhinged in 2022. He had 36 saves with a 1.31 ERA, 0.90 FIP, 17.3 K/9, and 2.61 BB/9. He missed all of 2023 with a broken patellar tendon, and his presence was missed. Entering 2024, I expect to see Edwin return to form.
Sleeper: Francisco Alvarez: While Alvarez only hit .209/.284/.437 in 2023, I think this is not an indicator of the hitter he can be. He hit 25 home runs last year and had a 97 WRC+. He already is a good defender, and now that he has one big league season under his belt, I think better times are ahead, and he will be a big part of this Mets offense.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Jett Williams: Standing at a staggering 5’6″, Jett Williams lives up to the first name Jett. He is a speedy player who is excellent on the basepaths and fast in the fields. He also has a good eye at the plate. His 104 walks were good for a second in all the minors last season. If he can find consistent contact, he’ll be a great outfielder for the Mets.
Luisangel Acuna: Acquired in the Max Scherzer trade, Acuna could be a great addition to the Mets’ infield. He hit .294/.359/.410 in the minors in 2023 and has dramatically improved at covering the plate. He still has a way to go before making the big league roster, but the Mets will be in good hands if he can be a fraction of his brother.
GM For a Day
Mets owner Steve Cohen has proven he will spend money. Go get Jordan Montgomery while you can. This rotation desperately needs a one- or two-pitcher replacement. Something has to be done, or else the Mets will miss the playoffs, barring multiple breakout years.
Projected Finish 78-84, 3rd in the NL East, 10th in the NL
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