Notable Additions: Carlos Santana, Anthony DeSclafani, Manuel Margot
Notable Losses: Emilio Pagan, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle
The Twins had a great 2023 season, winning 87 games, the AL Central for the first time since 2020, and a Wild Card series. I really like the Twins, even with the loss of Sonny Gray and Emilio Pagan. The question is, where do I have them finishing?
Projected Starters
C: Christian Vazquez/Ryan Jeffers
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Edouard Julien
3B: Royce Lewis
SS: Carlos Correa
LF: Matt Wallner
CF: Manuel Margot
RF: Max Kepler
DH: Byron Buxton
The Twins were a sneaky good offense last year, ranking 7th in OPS as a team. Eleven different qualified batters had an OPS of .700 or better. Of those eleven, Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Correa, Buxton, and Kepler are returning. Carlos Santana had a .747 OPS in 2023, and Wallner had a .877 OPS but was not qualified. This offense is very underrated and should still be able to hold their own in 2024. Can Correa and Buxton return to form as well? I give the Twins hitting a 7/10.
Projected Starting Rotation
Pablo Lopez
Joe Ryan
Bailey Ober
Chris Paddack
Anthony DeSclafani
The Twins also had a great pitching staff. They ranked 6th in ERA as a team in 2023 and 1st in strikeouts. Losing Sonny Gray hurts a lot, but they still have great pitchers like Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack should be great 3 and 4 guys, while DeSclafani should be solid once he returns from injury. I do not think they will be as dominant as a staff in 2024 as in 2023. Regardless, this is still a good pitching staff. I give them a 6/10.
Their bullpen was great as well. Jhoan Duran established himself as one of the best closers in baseball last season. Unfortunately, he is set to miss the start of the 2024 season. The Twins still have other great pieces, such as Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar. The loss of Emilio Pagan does hurt as well. Like their rotation, I think they will regress but still be good. I give them a 6/10.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Pablo Lopez: Acquired in the Luis Arraez trade, Pablo Lopez was fantastic for Minnesota last year. In 2023, he put up a 3.66 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a career-high 234 strikeouts and 10.9 K/9. His baseball savant chart is all red. His worst percentile is his fastball velocity, which sits in the 65th percentile. His fastball sits around 94 mph, but when you strike out 234 guys in 194 innings of work, it doesn’t matter how fast you throw.
Carlos Correa: Coming off arguably the worst year of his career, Correa is still an X-Factor. Last season, he hit .230/.312/.399 with 18 home runs and a 96 WRC+. This was a down year for him, and I think he’ll bounce back in 2024. In 2018, when Correa had a .728 OPS, he had a .926 OPS in 2019. He was younger five years ago, but I think he can have an OPS in the .800s this year.
Sleeper: Royce Lewis: Welcome to the big leagues, Royce Lewis. The 2017 first overall selection seems to have finally found his groove. In 58 games last season, he hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs and a 155 WRC+. Over a 162-game average, this would equate to .307/.364/.549 with 39 home runs. He has the potential to be a huge bat for Minnesota in 2024.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Walter Jenkins: Ranked as the number 10 prospect in the MLB, Walter Jenkins is one of the best-hitting prospects. He is 19 years old and is tearing through the minors. Last season, he hit .362/.417/.571 with 3 home runs in 26 games. Jenkins is 6’3″, has a great left-handed swing, and can play the outfield well. Look out for him when he reaches the big leagues.
Brooks Lee: Ranked as the number 18 prospect in the MLB, Brooks Lee may see some time in the big leagues this season. He hit .275/.347/.461 with 16 home runs in the minors last season. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop who will most likely play second base when he is called up. It doesn’t matter what position he plays; he’ll be good.
GM For a Day
The Twins have a plethora of outfield prospects. I’d look to trade one of those top 5 prospects and some lower-ranked prospects for another star pitcher, such as Shane Bieber or whoever is being sold at the deadline. And as always, sign Jordan Montgomery.
Projected Finish: 85-77, 1st in the AL Central, 3rd seed in the AL
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