Notable Additions: Daniel Vogelbach, Justin Turner, Joey Votto
Notable Losses: Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt
The Blue Jays had a good 2023 campaign, winning 89 games en route to the 6 seed in the AL. However, they lost some key pieces in free agency this offseason. They still have great young hitting talent and a formidable pitching staff. Will they be able to replace the talent they lost and reach the postseason again?
Projected Starters
C: Alejandro Kirk
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2B: Cavan Biggio
3B: Justin Turner
SS: Bo Bichette
LF: Daulton Varsho
CF: Kevin Kiermeier
RF: George Springer
DH: Daniel Vogelbach
The hitting for the Blue Jays was pretty good, as they were ranked 11th in the league in OPS as a team. It is worth noting that their 2023 leader in OPS was Brandon Belt, who will not return. They also lost Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield, who had a .788 and .700 OPS, respectively. The additions of Justin Turner and Daniel Vogelbach should help their hitting, but I wonder how much more they have left in the tank. Don’t get me wrong, this hitting lineup is very good, but I can only give them a 6/10 for now.
Projected Starting Rotation
Kevin Gausman
Chris Bassitt
Jose Berrios
Yusei Kikuchi
Alex Manoah
The Blue Jays pitching staff was outstanding last season, ranking 4th in ERA as a team. Four of their main five starters had an ERA below 4.00. However, only one of them had a FIP below 3.95. Yes, it was Kevin Gausman. Gausman is a top-10 pitcher in baseball and has been phenomenal for the Blue Jays. As for the rest of the staff, I worry that they can all repeat the same success they had last year, with a big gap between their ERA and FIP. Regardless, this is still a talented pitching staff, and I give them a 6/10.
Like their starting pitching, the Blue Jays bullpen was pretty good last year. Although, the difference between ERA and FIP for bullpen pitchers was not as significant as for starters. Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, and Tim Mayza were all fantastic last year, but Romano and Swanson are dealing with injuries in spring training. If Chad Green, Yimi Garcia, and Genesis Cabrera have bounce-back years, this could be the best bullpen in baseball. For now, I’ll give them a 6/10, factoring in the injuries of 2 of their 3 best bullpen arms.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: There should be no doubts that the MLB the Show 24 cover star would be an X-Factor. In his career, Vladdy has hit .279/.355/.490, averaging 32 home runs a season with 130 WRC+. A lot of that is inflated by his almost MVP season in 2021, but he has still been a reliable and consistent bat for the Blue Jays. I think there is a high probability that he will top his career averages this year and have an MVP season.
Kevin Gausman: Gausman has been very comfortable in Toronto. In two seasons with the Blue Jays, he has a 3.25 ERA, 2.68 FIP, and 442 strikeouts. His fastball is electric, ranking in the 95th percentile for run value and in the 93rd percentile for strikeout percentage. He reminds me of Zack Wheeler; they both are aging like fine wine.
Sleeper: Alejandro Kirk: The 25-year-old came onto the scene in 2022, earning an all-star appearance and Silver Slugger at catcher. Last season, he hit .250/.334/.358 with 8 home runs and a 96 WRC+. People are sleeping on him going into 2024. He is in the 99th percentile in whiff percentage and 98th percentile in strikeout percentage. Those traits are hard to teach. He is also a good defender, ranking in the 99th percentile in blocks above average. Look out for Alejandro Kirk in 2024.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Ricky Tiedemann: Drafted in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft, Ricky Tiedemann is a 6’4″ lefty whose fastball reaches 98 mph. In 2023, he had a 3.68 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched. He has great strikeout stuff and has a chance to crack the Blue Jays rotation this season.
Orelvis Martinez: The 22-year-old middle infielder is another Blue Jays prospect who could crack the big league roster in 2024. Over the last three seasons, Martinez has 86 home runs in 1,276 plate appearances. Their second base could need a power bat like that sometime in the 2024 season. Expect to see Orelvis Martinez soon.
GM For a Day: It is time to end the Cavin Biggio experiment. A new scenario may be what he needs to find himself. Martinez is ready to fill the gap at 2nd base. Trade Biggio to a rebuilding team that needs a second baseman. Also, sign Jordan Montgomery.
Projected Finish: 84-78, 3rd in the AL East, 7th in the AL
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