Notable Additions: Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Emilio Pagan
Notable Losses: Joey Votto, Nick Senzel, Harrison Bader
The Reds performed above expectations in 2023, and some of their young stars showed up. In response, the Reds signed some key free-agent pieces, including Jeimer Candelario and Frankie Montas. Will this young core make some noise in the NL, or are they still a year away?
Projected Starters
C: Tyler Stephenson
1B: Christian Encarnacion-Strand
2B: Matt McClain
3B: Jeimer Candelario
SS: Elly De La Cruz
LF: Spencer Steer
CF: Will Benson
RF: Jake Fraley
DH: Jonathan India
Starting with hitting, the only projected starter above the age of 30 is Jeimer Candelario. Matt McLain, Will Benson, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all had a WRC+ of 100 or higher last season. The oldest one in the group is Jake Fraley, who is 29 years old. The Reds have a bunch of young hitters who seem very promising. However, I want to see them hit that well again before I put them above 5/10.
Projected Starting Rotation
Hunter Greene
Graham Ashcraft
Frankie Montas
Nick Lodolo
Andrew Abbott
Like the Reds’ hitting, their starting pitching is also very young, except for Frankie Montas. However, the results have not shined through yet. Andrew Abbott was the only pitcher with an ERA below 4.00, and Frankie Montas only pitched in one game last year. The bright side is that there is a lot of upside, just like the Reds’ hitting, but until I see more proof, I can only give the Reds’ pitching a 5/10.
I like the talent in the Reds’ bullpen, and many of them had solid seasons in 2023. Alexis Diaz, Ian Gibaut, Lucas Sims, Sam Moll, Alex Young, and newly acquired Emilio Pagan all had ERAs below 4.00. I think this bullpen can help pick up the slack if the starting pitching doesn’t come through. I give the Reds’ bullpen a 6/10.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Matt McLain: After getting called up on May 15th, McLain was a huge bright spot for the Reds. In 89 games, he hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 home runs with a 128 WRC+. He finds his spot well as he is in the 94th percentile for sweet spot percentage. I expect him to steal at least 20 bases this year, possibly 30. He should be a bright spot for the Reds this year.
Spencer Steer: Last year, Spencer Steer led the Reds in home runs with 23. He hit .271/.356/.464 with a 118 WRC+. The Reds acquired him in the Tyler Mahle trade, and they are happy to have him. He doesn’t chase many balls and walks his fair share of times at the plate. Locked up through 2029, the Reds have a rising star in left field.
Sleeper: Hunter Greene: A highly touted prospect in the early 2020s, Hunter Greene has gotten off to a slow start in the majors. He has a 4.62 ERA in 237.2 innings with the Reds. Let’s look at the positives, his career SO/9 is 12.0, his FIP is .30 lower than his ERA, and he is 24 years old with 2 years of major league experience. I expect a big breakout year out of Hunter Greene.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Rhett Lowder: Selected 7th overall in the 2023 MLB draft, Rhett Lowder looks to be one of the next great Reds pitchers. His fastball tops out at around 97, and he has excellent breaking stuff. He has great mechanics and should have no trouble rising through the Reds farm system.
Edwin Arroyo: Acquired in the Luis Castillo trade, Arroyo is only 20 years old. He is a switch hitter with a great swing and has added more power to his game the older he has become. He also has elite speed on the basepaths. The Reds have Elly De Le Cruz at shortstop, but they would be mistaken to not find a spot in the line for Arroyo when he arrives in the majors.
GM For a Day
The Reds are not afraid to spend money when they are close to contending, and they are close to contending. Sign Jordan Montgomery to a short-term deal with some opt-outs and try to make a run for the NL Central. Yes, I keep recommending him as a signing, but he is still unsigned. Someone has to give him a chance, and why not Cincinnati?
Projected Finish: 82-80, 2nd in the NL Central, 7th in the NL
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