Notable Additions: Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Michael King
Notable Losses: Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Blake Snell?
After a heartbreaking NLCS loss to the Phillies in 2022, the Padres had high hopes for 2023. Juan Soto for an entire season and the signing of Xander Bogaerts gave San Diego much hope. Sadly, it all came crashing down. They finished 82-80, missed the playoffs, had to trade away Juan Soto in December, and Blake Snell is most likely gone. How do the Padres look heading into 2024?
Projected Starters
C: Kyle Higashioka
1B: Jake Cronenworth
2B: Xander Bogaerts
3B: Manny Machado
SS: Ha-Seong Kim
LF: Jurickson Profar
CF: Jackson Merill
RF: Fernando Tatis Jr
DH: Luis Campusano
The Padres hitting ranked 13th in team OPS and 18th in home runs. Their team’s OPS average was carried by Juan Soto, who scored a .920. However, four returning hitters had a WRC+ above 100. Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. I was disappointed to see Jake Cronenworth have a down year in 2023. It was the first time his WRC+ was below 100. I have to imagine he will bounce back. Overall, the Padres still have good hitting even with the loss of Juan Soto, so I give them a 6/10.
Projected Starting Rotation
Dylan Cease
Yu Darvish
Joe Musgrove
Michael King
Matt Waldron
Losing your NL Cy Young will always hurt, but gaining Dylan Cease is a good consolation prize. As for the rest of the Padres rotation, this unit ranked second in team ERA last year, even with Yu Darvish having one of the worst years of his career. At 36, I won’t rule him out to have a good year, but I won’t bank on it either. Michael Wacha is also an essential piece they will miss. He had a 3.22 ERA over 24 starts with 124 strikeouts. Joe Musgrove has been fantastic for San Diego since arriving in 2021. In 3 years, he has a 3.05 ERA over 459.2 innings of work. He and Cease should be a solid combo for the Padres in 2024. I worry about the rest of the rotation. I give the Padres a 5/10.
The Padres have a solid bullpen, but losing Josh Hader hurts a lot. Robert Suarez looks to take over the closer role, which I could certainly live with. He had a slow 2023, dealing with elbow inflammation and only putting up a 4.23 ERA. In 2022, he had a 2.27 ERA with an 11.5 K/9. I expect to see that Robert Suarez in 2024. As for the rest of the bullpen, I think they can be serviceable, and I give them a 5/10.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Manny Machado: Admittedly, Machado had one of his worst years with San Diego in 2023. He hit .258/.319/.462 with 30 home runs and a 114 WRC+. His on-base percentage was his lowest with the Padres to date, and his slugging was tied for his worst as a Padres. All I’ve done is bash Machado so far, so why is he one of my X-Factors? Because he is still one of the best players in baseball. His best years have come with San Diego, and he finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2022. His slugging has been .462 or better with San Diego, and I have no doubt that it will carry over into 2024.
Fernando Tatis Jr: Moving to right field was a brilliant decision. That decision has resulted in a Gold Glove and a Platinum Glove. His hitting statistics took a hit, but he can still hit the ball very hard, as he is in the 90th percentile for hard-hit balls. He should bounce back in 2024. He missed all of 2022 with injury and suspension, so 2023 was a get-back to normal year for him. If winning a platinum glove is returning to the grove of things, 2024 should be electric for Fernando Tatis Jr.
Sleeper: Ha-Seong Kim: The best has yet to come for Ha-Seong Kim, and this year is where it starts. Unlike Fernando Tatis Jr., Kim does not hit the ball very hard. However, he has a fantastic chase rate, 90th percentile, whiff percentage, 91st percentile, and walk percentage, 86th percentile. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 home runs and a 112 WRC+, all of which are career highs. He is also a great defender and should slide in nicely at shortstop.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Ethan Salas: At only 17 years old, Ethan Salas is already a top-10 MLB prospect. He signed last year and is already playing Double-A. He has a smooth swing from the left side of the plate and great defensive instincts. The Padres are confident he will reach the majors before he turns 20. With all those great tools, it wouldn’t surprise me either.
Jackson Merill: Merill should see major league playing time, and he deserves it. In the minors last year, he hit .277/.326/.444 with 15 home runs. He improved his ground ball rate from 59.6% to 42.5% in 2023, which helped him hit more home runs than in 2022. He is 6’3″, just turned 20, and is another one of the Padres’ great prospects.
GM For a Day
The Padres stole my GM for a day idea, so I will pivot to my next idea. See if you can move Luis Campusano while he still has value. Salas looks like the real deal, and you could roll out with a veteran for a year or two while he develops.
Projected Finish: 81-81, 4th in the NL West, 8th in the NL
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