Notable Additions: Whit Merrifield, Spencer Turnbull, Kolby Allard
Notable Losses: Rhys Hoskins, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen
The Phillies made back-to-back NLCS appearances but fell short of making it to the World Series in 2023. They couldn’t close the deal in game 6 or 7 at home, which still makes me sick to this day. The Phillies didn’t make any splash moves in free agency. Whit Merrifield and Spencer Turnbull are not big moves and are nothing compared to signing Trea Turner and Craig Kimbrel last offseason. Essentially, the Phillies are running it back with the same squad, and that’s alright.
Projected Starters
C: JT Realmuto
1B: Bryce Harper
2B: Bryson Stott
3B: Alec Bohm
SS: Trea Turner
LF: Brandon Marsh
CF: Johan Rojas
RF: Nick Castellanos
DH: Kyle Schwarber
Starting with the Phillies hitting, they ranked 6th in OPS as a team last season. Every hitter listed above had an OPS above .745. Eight of the nine hitters were qualified; the only one not qualified was Johan Rojas. Six of the nine players had 20 or more home runs. The only batters who did not were Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas. Their hitting is elite, one of the best in the game. However, they slump often, and those slumps are hard to watch. Regardless, they have proven they can hit well enough to earn a 9/10.
Projected Starting Rotation
Zack Wheeler
Aaron Nola
Ranger Suarez
Christopher Sanchez
Taijuan Walker/Spencer Turnbull
The Phillies have a fantastic top-of-the-rotation, certainly among the top 10 in baseball. Wheeler is elite, and Nola is still very good despite giving up a career-high 32 home runs. Ranger Suarez is in line to have a breakout year after a sluggish 2023 campaign. Christopher Sanchez had a great end to the 2023 season, while Walker and Turnbull look to prove they still have it. Overall, this is a very solid rotation, and I give them an 8/10.
The Phillies lost Craig Kimbrel, and MLB ranked their bullpen as the best in baseball. While Kimbrel drove me nuts in October, the Phillies bullpen did not get better with him leaving. Don’t get me wrong, it is still a very solid bullpen. Jose Alvarado was lights out in 2023, Jeff Hoffman was good, and Matt Strahm should be a good innings eater. I still believe that Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto will perform well in 2024. I give their bullpen a 7/10.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Bryce Harper: The first of two obvious X-Factors is Bryce Harper. Last season, Harper hit .293/.401/.499 with 21 home runs, a 142 WRC+ in 126 games. If you ever had doubts about how accurate baseball savant is, I can assure you it is very accurate. How do I know that? Because Harper’s baseball savant page is on the money. The only percentiles where he is not in the red are his strikeout percentage, whiff percentage, and chase percentage. Any Phillies fan would agree with me that these are the areas where he struggles. Any Phillies fan would also agree that we wouldn’t have it any other way. This guy is elite.
Zack Wheeler: Zack Wheeler has been nothing but dominant for the Phillies since signing with them in 2020. As a Phillie, he has a 3.06 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 675 strikeouts, and a 10.0 K/9 in 629.1 innings of work. Wheeler is the complete package; he strikes guys out, eats up innings, doesn’t give up many walks, and is a monster in the playoffs. The Phillies are lucky to have a guy as good as him.
Sleeper: Bryson Stott: Bryson Stott took a giant leap from 2022 to 2023. He increased his batting average from .234 to .280, his OPS from .653 to .747, his home runs from 10 to 15, and his WRC+ from 84 to 101. He also finished as a finalist for the Gold Glove at second base. He doesn’t strike out a lot, and he doesn’t whiff on many of his opportunities at the plate. I fully expect Stott to be a star for the Phillies in the future.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Andrew Painter: Selected in the first round of the 2021 MLB draft, Painter is a 6’7″ right-handed flamethrower. In 2022, he had a 1.56 ERA and a 13.5 K/9 in 103.2 innings of work. His fastball is one of the best in the minors. He also has a great slider and curveball to throw hitters off. Unfortunately, he got Tommy John and is set to miss all of 2024. However, in 2025, the Phillies may have their next ace in the making.
Mick Abel: Selected in the first round of the 2020 MLB draft, Mick Abel is another great Phillies pitching prospect. He has an 11.1 K/9 in his minor league career but needs to work more on his location. He had promising starts in Spring Training, but I wouldn’t expect to see him until 2025, either.
GM For a Day
The easiest and most obvious move would be to get a better starting pitcher. However, they need to sign Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm for long-term extensions—around 7 to 8 years, 150 million. They will only get better and want a lot more in the next two to three years.
Projected Finish: 92-70, 2nd in the NL East, 5th seed in the NL
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