Notable Additions: Josh Hader, Victor Caratini, Dylan Coleman
Notable Losses: Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton
The Astros have made seven consecutive ALCS appearances but fell to their state rivals, the Texas Rangers, in 2023. The Astros have become a dominant franchise over the last ten years and will contend for another AL title. They made a big splash by signing Josh Hader, but that is it. Is it enough to make another ALCS run? I have them making the postseason this year, but they are not winning the division.
Projected Starters
C: Yainer Diaz
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Jeremy Pena
LF: Chas McCormick
CF: Jake Myers
RF: Kyle Tucker
DH: Yordan Alvarez
Last season, the Astros ranked 5th in OPS as a team. Six players had an OPS above .800. Alex Bregman, Yanier Diaz, Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Yordan Alvarez. People may think the Astros’ core is getting old, but half of those guys mentioned are 27 or younger. They didn’t make many acquisitions in the hitting department, but honestly, they are fine. I give their hitting a 9/10.
Projected Starting Rotation
Framber Valdez
Christian Javier
Hunter Brown
Justin Verlander
JP France
The Astros ranked 8th in the league in ERA as a team in 2023. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez had an ERA below 3.50 on the Astros. This is also a reasonably young rotation. Valdez just turned 30, Javier is 27, Brown is 25, France is almost 29, and Verlander is old. I like Hunter Brown and Christian Javier to have bounce-back seasons in 2024. I give the Astros pitching a 7/10.
Their bullpen took a hit in 2024. Hector Neris and Phil Maton are gone, but they did add a top-five closer, Josh Hader. Ryan Pressly should slide nicely into the setup role alongside Bryan Abreu. Rafael Montero had a bad 2023 season after signing a three-year deal, but I expect him to bounce back and keep his ERA below 5.00. I give the Astros bullpen a 7/10.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Yordan Alvarez: This is an X-Factor right here. Yordan Alvarez can hit. In 2023, Alvarez hit .293/.407/.583 with 31 home runs and a 170 WRC+ in 496 plate appearances. Alvarez was in the 99th percentile for xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. His worst percentile ranking is his sweet spot, the 63rd percentile. He has a .974 OPS in his career, so I expect him to have 30 or more home runs and a batting average above .290 in 2024.
Framber Valdez: Framber Valdez has been fantastic for the Astros over the past three years. In that time, he has a 3.13 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 519 strikeouts in 534 innings of work. He is a groundball pitcher who hit the 200-strikeout threshold in 2023. Last season, he ranked in the 91st percentile for groundball percentage. Oh, and he threw a no-hitter last year. He is a free agent after the 2025 season, and I expect Houston to extend him.
Sleeper: Kyle Tucker: I know what you may be thinking; why is Kyle Tucker a sleeper? Maybe it’s just me, but I never see a Kyle Tucker highlight, and then suddenly, he has 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Last season, he hit .284/.369/.517 with 29 home runs and a 140 WRC+. He is 27 years old and seems to get better every year. Tucker doesn’t strike out a lot and gets on base frequently. I expect another big season out of him.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Jacob Melton: Selected in the 2nd round of the 2022 MLB draft, Melton, 23, hit .245/.335/.467 with 23 home runs and 46 stolen bases in 99 games. The Astros believe in him so much that they gave up two different top-100 prospects just to hold on to him. I think we will see Melton at some point in center field this year.
Luis Baez: Signed in the 2022 international pool, Luis Baez, 20, hit .248/.357/.481 with 11 home runs in 58 games. He has excellent power for his age but needs to work on his strikeout percentage. All the tools are there for Baez to be a great outfielder; he just needs the time to develop those skills.
GM For a Day
The Astros have set themselves up well to succeed but need a better first baseman. Jose Abreu is not what he used to be and is clogging up that position. They should have gone after Rhys Hoskins in free agency, but if they make a trade for a guy like Josh Bell at the deadline, he should be fairly cheap and have a solid OPS by July.
Projected Finish: 90-72, 2nd in the AL West, 4th seed in the AL
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