Notable Additions: Amed Rosario, Phil Maton, Jose Cabrello
Notable Losses: Tyler Glasnow, Vidal Brujan, Andrew Kittredge
The Rays battled with the Orioles for the AL East title in 2023 and came up short. They had to settle for a 99-win season and the 4th seed in the AL. They earned the right to host the Rangers, resulting in them being swept 0-2. It was a very disappointing end to a good season. Entering 2024, they lost Tyler Glasnow and made no other big-impact moves. That said, I still have them making the playoffs here in 2024.
Projected Starters
C: Rene Pinto
1B: Yandy Diaz
2B: Brandon Lowe
3B: Issac Paredes
SS: Jose Caballero
LF: Randy Arozarena
CF: Jose Siri
RF: Jose Lowe
DH: Harold Ramirez
Tampa Bay were the definition of team hitting. There are few household names on their roster, but they all put in work. They ranked 4th in OPS as a team in 2023. Seven returning players had an OPS of .760 or better. Yandy Diaz, Issac Paredes, Josh Lowe, Harold Ramirez, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, and Jose Siri are all back in 2024. The thing with the Rays is you never know who will do well, but you know someone will. Someone may have a breakout season for them, like Kareem Kirby. He’s not real, but for a second, you probably thought he was some prospect they had, didn’t you? I give the Rays hitting a 7/10.
Projected Starting Rotation
Zach Eflin
Aaron Civale
Zack Littell
Ryan Pepiot
Taj Bradley
The Rays had a great pitching staff in 2023, ranking 5th in ERA as a team. However, their starting pitching took a hit, losing Tyler Glasnow and Shane McClanahan (out for the year with Tommy John). Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale are a respectable one-two punch, and the rest of the rotation is okay. I’m sure, in typical Tampa Bay Rays fashion, one of these guys will be in Cy Young contention. But I can not give them more than a 5/10.
The Rays live and breathe by the bullpen and the matchups. Four relievers had an ERA of 3.10 or better, Shawn Armstrong, Colin Poche, Jason Adam, and Kevin Kelly. I also really like the addition of Phil Maton. Their bullpen pieces are always in a good spot, and I give the Rays bullpen a 9/10.
Sock’s 2 X-Factors
Randy Arozarena: Arozarena has become one of the more reliable pieces for the Rays. In 4 years with them, he has hit .264/.350/.450, averaging 24 home runs a season. He barrels balls at a 12.3% rate and is in the 87th percentile for walk percentage. He’s entering his age 29 season and should have no problem replicating his averages.
Yandy Diaz: Yandy Diaz has become an elite player for the Rays. Over the last 3 years, Diaz had hit .295/.389/.447, averaging 15 home runs. Last season, he was an all-star, had a league-leading .330 batting average, and won silver slugger at first base. He ranked in the 98th percentile for expected batting average and average exit velocity in 2023. At 32, he has become a reliable piece for Tampa Bay.
Sleeper: Issac Paredes: Paredes stepped foot in Tampa and decided to hit home runs for fun. He hit 20 in 2022 and 31 in 2023. He doesn’t whiff a lot and gets on base at a respectable rate of 10.2%. Entering his age-25 season, I expect him to hit 30 home runs again, maybe 40.
Prospects to Look Forward To
Junior Caminero: Acquired from the Guardians in 2021, Caminero has been another great find for the Rays. In three minor league seasons, he hit .316/.383/.555 with 51 home runs. At 20 years old, he has great plate discipline. He is listed at third base, so it will be interesting to see where they put him because he is ready for the major leagues.
Xavier Isaac: Drafted 29th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Xavier Isaac, 20, is a great left-handed power hitter. In 2023, he hit .285/.395/.521 with 19 home runs in 361 at-bats. He has a mighty swing and a reasonable 14.8% walk rate. Once Yandy Diaz departs, Xavier Isaac should be a great replacement.
GM For a Day
They need pitching badly, and I could see them trading for a guy like Shane Bieber at the trade deadline. The Rays need better starting pitching help this year because this rotation is not very good.
Projected Finish: 88-74, 2nd in the AL East, 6th seed in the AL
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